Impact assessment of the COVID-19 on trade between Eastern Europe and China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v7i3.579Keywords:
China, Eastern Europe, COVID19, international tradeAbstract
The high-risk of the rapidly spreading COVID-19 virus worldwide created a necessity for developing a diagnostic tool designed to predict economic development, considering the risks of spreading the coronavirus epidemic. In the proposed research, China is selected strategically due to the U.S. "Buy American" trade policy. Also, the European Union presents various trade barriers for countries of Eastern Europe. The risk-versus-economic efficiency study is performed based on Fibonacci law utilizing trade-dynamic indicators with incorporating the SIR-model used to predict the dynamics of COVID-19 cases in the region. The research was performed based on data collected for the period of March-July 2020. As a result, a scientific model to predict the dynamics of trade volume between China and selected Eastern European countries is developed. The results obtained have a practical application and can be used for government institutions and economic agencies to determine their nation's short- and long-term international trade strategy.
References
Amur Info. (2020). Russia is losing 1 bill rubles per day due to coronavirus in China (Article in Russian). Retrieved from https://www.amur.info/news/2020/02/21/168292
Chen, Y.-C., Lu, P.-E., Chang, C.-S., & Liu, T.-H. (2020). A Time-dependent SIR model for COVID-19 with Undetectable Infected Persons. Retrieved from https://arxiv.org/abs/2003.00122.
E.C. (2020b). The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global and E.U. trade. Retrieved from https://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2020/april/tradoc_158713.pdf
E.U. (2020). Commission Implementing Regulation (E.U.) 2020/426 of March 19 2020, amending Implementing Regulation (E.U.) 2020/402 making the exportation of certain products subject to the production of an export authorization.
Evans, D. K., Goldstein, M., & Popova, A. (2015). The Next Wave of Deaths from Ebola? The Impact of Health Care Worker Mortality. Policy Research working paper, no. WPS 7344. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-7344
Imbruno, M. (2020). Importing under trade policy uncertainty: Evidence from China. Journal of Comparative Economics, 47(4), 806-826. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2019.06.004
Investing. (2020). ????????? ????????? ? ???????? ???????. Retrieved from https://ru.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures.
Jin, P., Lu, L., Tang, Y., & Karniadakis, G.E. (2020). Quantifying the generalization error in deep learning in terms of data distribution and neural network smoothness. Neural Networks, 130, 85-99. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neunet.2020.06.024
Keogh-Brown, M., Wren-Lewis, S., Edmunds, W. J., Beutels, P., & Smith, R. D. (2009). The possible macroeconomic impact on the U.K. of an influenza pandemic. Health Economics, 19(11), 1345-1360.
Knoema. (2020). Global Markets Moved by coronavirus Outbreak. Retrieved from https://knoema.com/lwdhxyc/global-markets-moved-by-china-coronavirus-outbreak.
Megits, N. (2016). The Impact of Russia-China Trade Relationship on the U.S. Economy. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 3(2), 12. Obtained from: DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v3i2.135 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v3i2.135
Neskorodeva, I.?., & Pustovgar, S.?. (2015). An Approach to Predicting the Insolvency of Ukrainian Steel Enterprises Based on Financial Potential. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research, 2(2), 33-43. Obtained from: DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v2i2.104 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v2i2.104
Nesteruk, I. (2020). Statistics-Based Predictions of Coronavirus Epidemic Spreading in Mainland China. Innov Biosyst Bioeng, 4(1), 13-18. Nikolopoulos, K., Punia, S., Schäfers, A., Tsinopoulos, C., & Vasilakis, C. (2020). Forecasting and planning during a pandemic: COVID-19 growth rates, supply chain disruptions, and governmental decisions. European Journal of Operational Research. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2020.08.001. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.08.001
OCHA. (2020). COVID-19 Notes on Humanitarian Crises - An ICMHD Health Policy Contribution. Retrieved from https://reliefweb.int/report/world/COVID-19-notes-humanitarian-crises-icmhd-health-policy-contribution
OECD. (2020a). Tackling coronavirus (COVID?19) Contributing to a global effort. Retrieved from http://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/
OECD. (2020b). COVID-19 crisis response in Eastern Partner countries. Retrieved from https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/COVID-19-crisis-response-in-eu-eastern-partner-countries-7759afa3/
?ahin, U., & ?ahin, T. (2020). Forecasting the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy, U.K. and USA using fractional nonlinear grey Bernoulli model. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 138, 109948.
Song, M-L., Cao, S.-P., & Wang, S.-H. (2019). The impact of knowledge trade on sustainable development and environment-biased technical progress. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 144(C), 512-523. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2018.02.017
The Economist (August 2020). Video presentation: COVID-19: The road ahead for eastern Europe, Retrieved from https://economist.zoom.us/rec/play/vMUvduH8pzw3EtSStASDA6R6W9XreK2sgCce8qYMmR3nBiJXYAevYrUTMLaLInOLr65w2tSuVkVliZ5W?startTime=1597917927000&_x_zm_rtaid=D5Ay_Mb9R-2aSOamOY2HYA.1598969136108.03de3f0bb39d1e023876ce6eb5a516bc&_x_zm_rhtaid=520
Tian, J., Sim, N., Yan, W., & Li, Y. (2020). Trade uncertainty, income, and democracy. Economic Modelling, 90, 21-31. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2020.04.022
Trend Economy. (2020). Trade Data Insights. Retrieved from https://trendeconomy.ru/trade
Vaishnav, V., & Vajpai, J. (2020). Assessment of impact of relaxation in lockdown and forecast of preparation for combating COVID-19 pandemic in India using Group Method of Data Handling. Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, 140, 110191. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110191
Vasiljeva, M., Neskorodieva, I., Ponkratov, V., Kuznetsov, N., Ivlev, V., Ivleva, M., Maramygin, M., & Zekiy, A. (2020). A Predictive Model for Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economies of Some Eastern European Countries. Journal of Open Innovation: Technology, Market, and Complexity, 6(3), 92. DOI: 10.3390/joitmc6030092 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/joitmc6030092
WIIW. (2020). Eastern Europe Coronavirus tracker: Preparing for the worst. Retrieved from https://wiiw.ac.at/eastern-europe-coronavirus-tracker-preparing-for-the-worst-n-430.html
WTO. (2020a). Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy. Retrieved from https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm
WTO. (2020b). Goods barometer confirms steep drop in trade but hints at nascent recovery. Retrieved from https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news20_e/wtoi_19aug20_e.htm
WTO. (2020c). Documents for meetings. Retrieved from https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/FE_Search/FE_S_S006.aspx?DataSource=Cat&Query=@MeetingId=160705&Language=English&Context=ScriptedSearches&languageUIChanged=true.
Yates, C. (2020). How to model a pandemic. The Conversation. Retrieved from https://theconversation.com/how-to-model-a-pandemic-134187.
Zhou, Y., Chen, S., & Chen, M. (2019). Global value chain, regional trade networks and Sino-EU FTA. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 50, 26-38. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.strueco.2019.04.010
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
The JEECAR journal allows the author(s) to hold the copyright and publishing rights of their own manuscript without restrictions.
This journal applies the Creative Attribution Common License to works we publish, and allows reuse and remixing of its content, in accordance with a CC-BY 4.0 license.
Authors are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
No additional restrictions — The author may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
The JEECAR Journal is committed to the editorial principles of all aspects of publication ethics and publication malpractice as assigned by the Committee on Public Ethics.
