An economic analysis of the impact of the Russian War in Ukraine on the Poland-U.S. trade
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v10i7.1426Keywords:
Investement, Trade, Inernational Economics, Ukraine, United States, Poland, TradeMap, Russian warAbstract
This research article examines the economic analysis of the influence of the Russian war in Ukraine on Poland and U.S. trade. The study employs a combination of quantitative and qualitative research methods to investigate the impact of the conflict on trade dynamics between the two countries. The quantitative analysis utilizes trade data, including import and export volumes, trade balances, trade flows, and economic output from 2003 to 2022 using TradeMap data. Descriptive and various econometric estimations were estimated. The qualitative analysis involves the evaluation of policy responses, trade strategies, and business decisions made in response to the conflict. The results indicate a rise in Polish exports to the U.S., but dominated by specific products. This research contributes to a comprehensive understanding of how the Russian war in Ukraine has affected Poland's trade with the U.S., provides valuable insights into the economic consequences of the conflict, and identifies potential avenues for future trade cooperation between Poland and the U.S.
References
Byrska, O. (2022). Civil Crisis Management in Poland: The First Weeks of the Relief in Russian War on Ukraine. Journal of Genocide Research, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1080/14623528.2022.2079196 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/14623528.2022.2079196
Czerwińska, T., & Kaźmierkiewicz, P. (2015). ESG Rating in Investment Risk Analysis of Companies Listed on the Public Market in Poland. Economic Notes, 44(2), 211–248. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecno.12031 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecno.12031
Darmayadi, A., & Megits, N. (2023). The impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on the European Union economy. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 10(1), 46–55. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v10i1.1079 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v10i1.1079
Duvanova, D., Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, A., & Zadorozhna, O. (2023). Can Black Tulips stop Russia again? Journal of Comparative Economics. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.009 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jce.2023.06.009
Duszczyk, M., & Kaczmarczyk, P. (2022). The War in Ukraine and Migration to Poland: Outlook and Challenges. Intereconomics, 57(3), 164–170. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1053-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10272-022-1053-6
Gluszak, M., & Trojanek, R. (2023). War in Ukraine, Refugee Crisis, and Housing Market in Poland. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4376132 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4376132
Hammett, A.L. (2017). Modeling Export Success. Expanding Export Markets, 91–116. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315100739-5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315100739-5
Hansen, F.S. (2023). The Russian world order before and after the Ukraine War. Politica, 55(1). https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v55i1.135831 DOI: https://doi.org/10.7146/politica.v55i1.135831
ITC, (2023). International Trade Center: Trade statistics. https://intracen.org/resources/data-and-analysis/trade-statistics
Liashenko, V., Khaustova, V., & Trushkina, N. (2023). Cross-border transport and logistics cluster as a tool for territorial development of Ukraine and Poland: institutional basis. Journal of European Economy, 21(4), 503-521. https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2022.04.503 DOI: https://doi.org/10.35774/jee2022.04.503
Lunde, N.T. (2016). Asymmetric Ethics? Russian and Western Perceptions of War. In: Haaland Matlary, J., Heier, T. (eds) Ukraine and Beyond. Palgrave Macmillan, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32530-9_11 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-32530-9_11
Markowicz, I., & Baran, P. (2022). Duration of Trade Relationships of Polish Enterprises on the Intra-Community Market: The Case of Vehicles and Automotive Parts Trade. Sustainability, 14(6), 3599. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063599
Marks-Bielska, R., Lizińska, W., & Serocka, I. (2014). The United States as the Trade Partner of Poland in the Context of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Olsztyn Economic Journal, 9(3), 201-213. https://doi.org/10.31648/oej.3176 DOI: https://doi.org/10.31648/oej.3176
Mbah, R.E., & Wasum, D. (2022). Russian-Ukraine 2022 War: A Review of the Economic Impact of Russian-Ukraine Crisis on the USA, UK, Canada, and Europe. Advances in Social Sciences Research Journal, 9(3), 144–153. https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.93.12005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.14738/assrj.93.12005
Melnychenko, O., Osadcha, T., Kovalyov, A., & Matskul, V. (2022). Consequences of Russia's military invasion of Ukraine for Polish-Ukrainian trade relations. Journal of International Studies, 15, 131-149. https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2022/15-4/8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.14254/2071-8330.2022/15-4/8
Nesseler, C., & Kobierecki, M. (2023). Poland and the war in Ukraine. Examining public support and attitudes. AEA Randomized Controlled Trials. https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10916-1.0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/rct.10916
OECD (2023). Foreign direct investment flows by country: Poland. OECD International Direct Investment Statistics 2022. https://doi.org/10.1787/a6f5bfc0-en DOI: https://doi.org/10.1787/a6f5bfc0-en
Öge Güney, P. (2019). Macroeconomic uncertainty and private investment: the case of Poland. Uluslararası İktisadi ve İdari İncelemeler Dergisi, 22, 93–106. https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.404607 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18092/ulikidince.404607
Pavlova, O., Pavlov, K., Novosad, O., Irtyshcheva, I., Popadynets, N., Hryhoruk, I., Gelich, N., Suriak, A., Makara, O., Zhuk, O., Boiko, Y., & Kramarenko, I. (2020). Strategic Priorities for Socio-economic Development of Ukraine in Comparison with the Republic of Poland. Advances in Intelligent Systems and Computing, 308–314. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58282-1_49 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-58282-1_49
Piątkowski, M.J. (2020). Analysis of Investment Activities of Enterprises in Poland. Przedsiębiorczość - Edukacja, 16(2). https://doi.org/10.24917/20833296.162.18 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24917/20833296.162.18
Pikh, O. (2021). The Russian Federation in the foreign policy of Poland (2005–2015). Ukraine–Poland: Historical Heritage and Social Consciousness, 14, 224–248. https://doi.org/10.33402/up.2021-14-224-248 DOI: https://doi.org/10.33402/up.2021-14-224-248
Roszko-Wójtowicz, E., & Grzelak, M. M. (2021). Multi-dimensional analysis of regional investment attractiveness in Poland. Equilibrium, 16(1), 103–138. https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2021.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.24136/eq.2021.004
Szeptycki, A. (2021). Poland versus Russia: competition in Ukraine. East European Politics and Societies, 35(04), 1113-1135. https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325420950803 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0888325420950803
Tomal, M., & Marona, B. (2021). The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Private Rental Housing Market in Poland: What Do Experts Say and What Do Actual Data Show? Critical Housing Analysis, 8(1), 24–35. https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.520 DOI: https://doi.org/10.13060/23362839.2021.8.1.520
Tomeczek, A. F. (2021). Poland-United States bilateral relations: Political and economic aspects.
Welfens, P.J. (2023). Beginnings of the Russo-Ukrainian War. In Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Economic Challenges, Embargo Issues and a New Global Economic Order (pp. 3-43). Cham: Springer International Publishing. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-19138-1_1
Wojdon, J. (2022). The War in Ukraine and History Education of Refugee Pupils in Poland. Education in Times of War, 5(15). https://doi.org/10.17899/on_ed.2022.15.6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.17899/on_ed.2022.15.6
Wyrwa, J. (2019). Analysis of determinants of the inflow of foreign direct investment to Poland. Part I – theoretical considerations. Management, 23(2), 238–262. https://doi.org/10.2478/manment-2019-0029 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/manment-2019-0029
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2023 Mykola (Nikolay) Megits, Daniel Meyer
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
The JEECAR journal allows the author(s) to hold the copyright and publishing rights of their own manuscript without restrictions.
This journal applies the Creative Attribution Common License to works we publish, and allows reuse and remixing of its content, in accordance with a CC-BY 4.0 license.
Authors are free to: Share — copy and redistribute the material in any medium or format and Adapt — remix, transform, and build upon the material for any purpose, even commercially.
Under the following terms: Attribution — You must give appropriate credit, provide a link to the license, and indicate if changes were made. You may do so in any reasonable manner, but not in any way that suggests the licensor endorses you or your use.
No additional restrictions — The author may not apply legal terms or technological measures that legally restrict others from doing anything the license permits.
The JEECAR Journal is committed to the editorial principles of all aspects of publication ethics and publication malpractice as assigned by the Committee on Public Ethics.
