Bank digitalization and financial stability in Central Asia: Assessing risk and resilience

Authors

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v12i1.2100

Keywords:

Bank digitalization, Central Asia, financial stability, emerging economies, system GMM

Abstract

The digitalization of banking services is transforming financial institutions worldwide; however, its impact on financial stability remains a subject of debate, particularly in emerging economies. This study examines the relationship between bank digitalization and financial stability, focusing on commercial banks in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan from 2013 to 2023. Using a two-step system GMM approach, the findings reveal that bank digitalization significantly enhances financial stability by reducing risk exposure and improving resilience. Key digitalization components, such as electronic money, QR payments, and online platforms, contribute positively to stability by lowering operational costs, enhancing transaction efficiency, and strengthening risk management through real-time credit monitoring. Robustness tests reveal heterogeneity based on ownership structure, with private banks benefiting more from digitalization than government-controlled banks. The findings underscore the importance of digital adoption in strengthening banking systems and highlight the need for policies that foster a balanced and secure digital transition in emerging banking markets.

Author Biography

Emil Begimkulov, University of Pécs

Emil Begimkulov is a Ph.D. Student at the Faculty of Business and Economics, University of Pécs, Hungary.

References

Barney, J. (1991). Firm resources and sustained competitive advantage. Journal of Management, 17(1), 99–120. https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639101700108 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/014920639101700108

Batsaikhan, U., & Dabrowski, M. (2017). Central Asia — twenty-five years after the breakup of the USSR. Russian Journal of Economics, 3(3), 296–320. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ruje.2017.09.005

Begimkulov, E. (2023). Competitiveness in Banking Sector: A Systematic Literature Review. Marketing & Menedzsment, 56(4), 47–56. https://doi.org/10.15170/MM.2022.56.04.05 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15170/MM.2022.56.04.05

Begimkulov, E. (2024). The empirical measurement of competition and digitalization for the banking sector of Kyrgyzstan: Impacts of efficiency, profitability, and stability. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 11(5), 956–967. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v11i5.1614 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v11i5.1614

Begimkulov, E., & Kuti, M. (2025). The Impact of Bank Competition on Stability in Central Asia: The Moderating Role of Bank Digitalization. Pénzügyi Szemle = Public Finance Quarterly, 71(1), 87–106. https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2025_1_5 DOI: https://doi.org/10.35551/PFQ_2025_1_5

Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of Econometrics, 87(1), 115–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8

Carbó-Valverde, S. (2017). The impact on digitalization on banking and financial stability. Journal of Financial Management, Markets and Institutions, 1, 133–140. https://doi.org/10.12831/8706

Casu, B., Ferrari, A., Girardone, C., & Wilson, J. O. S. (2016). Integration, productivity and technological spillovers: Evidence for eurozone banking industries. European Journal of Operational Research, 255(3), 971–983. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.007 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2016.06.007

Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan. (2023). Annual Report of the Central Bank of the Republic of Uzbekistan for the Year 2023.

Chao, N., Zhou, Y., & Yang, H. (2024). How does digital transformation affect the profitability of rural commercial banks? Heliyon, 10(8), e29412. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29412 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e29412

Chesini, G., & Giaretta, E. (2024). The impact of digitalisation on the profitability of large US banks. European J. of International Management, 23(2/3), 437–469. https://doi.org/10.1504/EJIM.2024.138654 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1504/EJIM.2024.138654

Chortareas, G. E., Garza‐Garcia, J. G., & Girardone, C. (2011). Banking Sector Performance in Latin America: Market Power versus Efficiency. Review of Development Economics, 15(2), 307–325. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00610.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9361.2011.00610.x

Clark, E., Radić, N., & Sharipova, A. (2018). Bank competition and stability in the CIS markets. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 54, 190–203. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.12.005 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2017.12.005

Demirguc-Kunt, A., Klapper, L., Singer, D., Ansar, S., & Hess, J. (2018). The Global Findex Database 2017: Measuring Financial Inclusion and the Fintech Revolution. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1259-0 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1259-0

Fuster, A., Plosser, M., Schnabl, P., & Vickery, J. (2019). The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending. The Review of Financial Studies, 32(5), 1854–1899. https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz018 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rfs/hhz018

Guo, Y., & Liang, C. (2016). Blockchain application and outlook in the banking industry. Financial Innovation, 2(1), 24. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-016-0034-9 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-016-0034-9

Huang, Y., Zhang, L., Li, Z., Qiu, H., Sun, T., & Wang, X. (2020). Fintech Credit Risk Assessment for SMEs. IMF Working Papers, 20(193). https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557618.001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513557618.001

Jia, K., & Liu, X. (2024). Bank digital transformation, bank competitiveness and systemic risk. Frontiers in Physics, 11. https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2023.1297912 DOI: https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2023.1297912

Khandelwal, P., Cabezon, E., Mirzayev, S., & Al-Farah, R. (2022). Macroprudential Policies to Enhance Financial Stability in the Caucasus and Central Asia. International Monetary Fund. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400201240.087

Khattak, M. A., Ali, M., Azmi, W., & Rizvi, S. A. R. (2023). Digital transformation, diversification and stability: What do we know about banks? Economic Analysis and Policy, 78, 122–132. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.03.004 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2023.03.004

Kriebel, J., & Debener, J. (2019). Measuring the Effect of Digitalization Efforts on Bank Performance. SSRN Electronic Journal. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3461594 DOI: https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3461594

Lestari, D., Ma, S., & Jun, A. (2023). Enhancing bank stability from diversification and digitalization perspective in ASEAN. Studies in Economics and Finance, 40(4), 606–624. https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-12-2022-0554 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/SEF-12-2022-0554

National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic. (2023). Annual Report of the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic for the Year 2023. https://www.nbkr.kg/DOC/28062024/000000000062630.pdf

National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan. (2023). Report of the National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the Year 2023. https://nationalbank.kz/file/download/102821

Nguyen, Q. T. T., Ho, L. T. H., & Nguyen, D. T. (2023). Digitalization and bank profitability: evidence from an emerging country. International Journal of Bank Marketing. https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBM-03-2023-0156 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1108/IJBM-03-2023-0156

Ozili, P. K. (2018). Impact of digital finance on financial inclusion and stability. Borsa Istanbul Review, 18(4), 329–340. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2017.12.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.bir.2017.12.003

Ruziev, K., & Majidov, T. (2013). Differing Effects of the Global Financial Crisis on the Central Asian Countries: Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and Uzbekistan. Europe-Asia Studies, 65(4), 682–716. https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2013.766044 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/09668136.2013.766044

Shanmugam, K. R., & Nigam, R. (2020). Impact of technology on the financial performance of Indian commercial banks: a clustering based approach. Innovation and Development, 10(3), 433–449. https://doi.org/10.1080/2157930X.2019.1685792 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/2157930X.2019.1685792

Soedarmono, W., Machrouh, F., & Tarazi, A. (2011). Bank market power, economic growth and financial stability: Evidence from Asian banks. Journal of Asian Economics, 22(6), 460–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2011.08.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asieco.2011.08.003

Statista. (2024). Digital Banks - Central Asia. https://www.statista.com/outlook/fmo/banking/digital-banks/central-asia

Suryanto, S., Muhyi, H. A., Kuirniati, P. S., & Mustapha, N. (2022). Banking financial performance in the industry financial technology era. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 9(5), 889–900. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i5.1075 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i5.1075

Tan, Y. (2016). The impacts of risk and competition on bank profitability in China. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 40, 85–110. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.09.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2015.09.003

Versal, N., Erastov, V., Balytska, M., & Honchar, I. (2022). Digitalization Index: Case for Banking System. Statistika: Statistics & Economy Journal, 102(4).

https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.16 DOI: https://doi.org/10.54694/stat.2022.16

Yegorin, M. (2024, April 20). The rise of digital banking in Kazakhstan. Finextra. https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/25929/the-rise-of-digital-banking-in-kazakhstan

Yudaruddin, R. (2022). Bank Concentration and Stability in Central Asia: The Effect of Capital Regulation and Financial Freedom. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 9(2), 206–216. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i2.733 DOI: https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v9i2.733

Downloads

Published

2025-06-28

How to Cite

Begimkulov, E. (2025). Bank digitalization and financial stability in Central Asia: Assessing risk and resilience. Journal of Eastern European and Central Asian Research (JEECAR), 12(1), 17–30. https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v12i1.2100