Consumer price index in Ukraine: Methodological gaps and policy implications
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.15549/jeecar.v12i1.2087Keywords:
Inflation, Consumer Price Index (CPI), macroeconomic policy, Covid-19; Monetary Policy; Stock Market, inflationary processesAbstract
he Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a core indicator used to measure inflation and guide macroeconomic policy. However, its accuracy is often challenged due to discrepancies between the official weighting structure and the actual expenditure patterns of households. This study addresses the methodological limitations of CPI calculation in Ukraine and highlights the need to align it with dynamic economic realities. The article analyzes the divergence between official CPI weights and real consumption data, investigates the correlation between inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, and proposes improvements to CPI methodology. By employing graphical and regression analysis, the study demonstrates that outdated CPI structures may distort inflation estimates and hinder effective policymaking. The paper proposes a dual-track approach to CPI calculation, combining provisional and refined versions to ensure timeliness and accuracy. These findings offer a framework for enhancing the reliability of inflation indicators in Ukraine and similar economies.
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